What Happens If U.S. Soccer Keeps Gregg Berhalter?

This could be a moot point in the next few hours or prophetic

Between the soccer world and real world, thoughts of “what’s next if he stays” have been dominating my headspace over the past week.

But for this Substack, let’s focus on the more important one, at least according to what I’m seeing on X. At some point, someone allegedly will be making a decision on U.S. men’s national team manager Gregg Berhalter’s future as head coach. I won’t rehash the myriad reasons for why here and now (although I encourage you to listen to Feuerstein’s Fire this Friday if you do want some audio thoughtful analysis) but one thought keeps popping up.

What happens when he stays?

For this post I am going to outline what I think the Federation should do if they want to retain Berhalter, and what I think they will do if he stays on. Not surprisingly, both are radically different and controversial.

My next post will argue why Jurgen Klopp would be a horrible USMNT head coach candidate, but share which German-born manager would be perfect plus offer a few other names.

But for now, let’s talk Berhalter 3.0

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Let’s assume that Matt Crocker does his men’s senior team analysis and decides the status quo is the most viable option. Or the budget for manager is tapped out on the men’s side so Berhalter can’t be fired and replaced without cutting the travel budget. Or maybe quiet outreach to the two or three preferred candidates is rebuffed and Choice D is vastly better than Choices E-Z. Regardless, let’s say U.S. Soccer lets the clamor for change die down and over a newsy weekend (like the day the President announces he’s stepping down from his re-election) USSF issues a small press release saying “Gregg’s our guy, again”.

What’s next?

In the fantasy world I have concocted where logic and reason reigns, U.S. Soccer has realized they have two problems:

1. They messed up hyping this senior team and its player pool. These are very good players but not a Golden Generation like they’ve all but said. They’re good, but not even the best U.S. World Cup squad.

2. Even with the World Cup being primarily on U.S. soil, the odds of competing in it are very slim. In this case, USSF turns to a new strategy of maximizing profit to cover current loses and repad its reserves. This means a changed focus on the USMNT and making it a part, not the main focus, of continued marketing campaigns.

In essence, stop setting your manager and players up for failure if that failure is going to cost good will and revenue. Realizing they have blown a major opportunity and needing to salvage it, the federation issues a press release stating that 2026 is a major stepping stone to establishing soccer as a premier sport in the U.S., right below American football. Gregg Berhalter, as someone who is as American as apple pie and statistically accomplished, is the man to bring pride to the U.S. as it goes up against the world’s best. Marketing pivots to making this team essentially the U.S. Cricket team, an underdog against world powers.

For the team, this means a number of friendlies on U.S. soil against some biggish names, but many more against opponents designed to attract opposing fans. The goal is to test the players and allow Berhalter to experiment, but not fail so big that people remember why they wanted him fired in the first place. These matches could be designed to pad his resume and USSF coffers. Now many people, especially in the media, would see right through this BUT do well enough and people can be distracted by other things and stop caring as much. (BTW think USMNT versus MLS All Stars in 2025)

Come 2026, the U.S. is hyped by the usual suspects and, if we get in a friendly enough group, advance. We aren’t serious contenders but we can write off the loses, the Federation rakes in the bucks, and the soccer system in this country is financially stronger to hopefully move on to a better manager in 2027. The job looks slightly better without the hosting pressure, and the dollars are attractive.

That’s the fantasy world. But here’s what would actually happen.

U.S. Soccer doubles down. Thinking they can squash the critics, they do the whole “busy news day press release” tactic and wait for the outrage to die down. They they continue. The U.S. still holds overpriced friendlies and wins small trophies that the Federation can point to as progress. Behind closed doors, the technical staff have series of tough conversations about how they can change their tactics around the 5-6 untouchable players in the squad and when they unveil a new system, allies praise this as growth from the manager.

Going into 2026, the hype machine is in overdrive. The player pool, as shallow as it may be, is continued to be hyped as the best ever. Berhalter’s successes are blown out of proportion, even if they are actual achievements or improvements. USSF and its media partners talk up this team and hope/pray they overachieve. If they don’t…..it’s disaster all over again but that’s a problem for another day. If they escape the group and have a “signature moment” (e.g. Donovan goal) USSF markets the hell out the special talent and Berhalter is praised as a genius. The men’s team remains stuck in the same stratus and blows a chance for something special, but that’s a problem for another day.

Dark and pessimistic? Yes. But I fear very realistic.